Ethiopia at risk of balkanisation
By Lodger Schadansky
TWOyearsafter Ethiopian PrimeMinister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prez . his country is engulfed in a war with the potential to destabilize he whole region for decades to come. says DW’s Ludger Schadomsky.
Jeffrey Feltmarfs visit to Ethiopia is the West’s last. desperate attempt to rescue the tottering country. The US special envoy to the Horn of Africa will uy to persuade Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed toagree to a cease4ireand peace talks.The hope is to bring an end to the war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s liberation Front COW before it descends on the Ethiopian capital. Addis Ababa. The war. which has been going on for a year now has long spilled out of figiay and has devastated half of the country Neighboring countries Sudan and Eritrea are involved.as well as other nations such as Iran. Turkey. the United Arab Emirates. Russia and (Una
The Horn of Africa is of particular zeosuategic importance and the conflict has the potential to estabileie the region for years, and possibly decades to come. It is already driving a wage throwh the international community and. once apin. Ileijing and Moscow are playing power games with their vetoes in the UN Security Council.
The fact that the prime minister. who was initially celebrated for his reforms. is now giving the cold shoulder to the US and the EL and looking eastwards is a hitter levon for the terrifyingly naivedecision-makers of the Old SW•rld who are writing up foreign and security policy.
Tragic end to •FAhioNan Spring’ The Moody end to the –Ethiopian Snare is tragic in many ways: Firstly for thell0 million pmple who had hoped for a better future after the 2018 peace deal: and secondly because the eamomyalready battered by rampant inflation and the pandemic, will suffer from the burden of war for years. The vicious cycle of poverty and hunger will continue.
Its also tragic because it shows that even before the Afghanistan debacle has subsided, the ccuntrys partners in the West have failed miserably yet again. It was also grotesquely ill-advised of them to support the nomination of the supposed reformer for the Nobel Peace Prge. To recap – Abiy was nominated because of his peace ygreement with Eritrea. The same Eritrea whose soldiers would go on to carry out terrible human rights violations two years later on invitation from the laureate himself. The governments of the West were blinded by their eagerness to support reform. It was simply too tempting to support a para. charismatic prime minister who promised to bring peace and stability to AfricaS second-most populous country and to stabilize the region.
But they fully underestimated the dynamics of a country’
that boasts MY 80 ethnic groom:. A cursory glance at history would have sufficed to understand that the deep rivalry between the ammo. the Amhara and therigrayans could not be plastered over with gestures and symbolic politics. The fact that the African Union. whose headquarters is in Addis Ababa. has once again failed to live up to its promise of of. ferirg –African solutions to African problems– goes without sayirg.
National dialogue is crucial
Of course. it would be too easy to blame the international community for the latest failed reforms. FAhioNa has a culture of deep-seated mistrust. and an incompetent and ethnocentric political caste stifles even the most modest auempts at democratintion Anyone who has heard Ethiopian intellectuals express astonishment at German coalition talks knows it will take generations before a culture of political compromise can establish itself here. Civil society LS still very weak in this post-authoritarian country which is essentially a powder keg that can be easily ignited by saboteurs. Ethnic hatred. for instance. is rampant on social media.
As an alliance of convenience between Tigrayans and ammo marches on the capital. it would be presumptuous to predict any future power constellations. However. what can be said is that if there is not a serious national dialogue involving
